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    RALPH LAUREN (RL)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$164.20Last close (May 22, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$160.02Open (May 23, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-4.18(-2.55%)
    • Ralph Lauren is on track to achieve its 3-year targets, delivering at the high end of guidance and expecting continued top-line growth and operating margin expansion for fiscal '25, including reaching the 15% operating margin goal, driven by brand elevation, DTC growth, and strong performance in Asia.
    • Strong growth and momentum in China, with RL's business in China now representing 7% of total company sales (up from 3% pre-COVID), driven by double-digit sales growth, strong brand connection with local consumers, and continued expansion in key cities, expected to lead company growth moving forward.
    • Despite challenges in North America wholesale, Ralph Lauren expects operating margins to improve, driven by strong Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) growth in North America, with healthy comps in stores and digital and benefits from lower cotton costs and less channel mix pressure expected to drive operating margins in fiscal '25.
    • Ralph Lauren expects continued declines in North American wholesale revenue, projecting a low to mid-single-digit decrease for fiscal 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in this segment.
    • Macroeconomic headwinds, such as inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and geopolitical tensions including "the two wars that are going on", could adversely affect performance in key regions like Europe and Asia. ,
    • The company anticipates rising costs due to higher labor expenses, inflation in non-cotton materials, and unfavorable foreign exchange rates like the weaker yen, which may pressure margins despite planned gross margin improvements.
    1. Fiscal '25 Guidance
      Q: How will you maintain growth amid global challenges?
      A: Despite tough macro conditions, we delivered at the high end of our fiscal '24 guidance and remain on track to achieve our 15% operating margin at constant currency. Our strategy is working, focusing on brand elevation, DTC growth, and regional expansion, particularly in Asia and Europe.

    2. North America Outlook
      Q: Can you reach 15% margin target if wholesale stays weak?
      A: We are on track to achieve our 15% constant currency operating margin this year, even with modest declines in North America wholesale. North America wholesale now represents about 16% of our business, down from 25%, reducing its impact. We expect DTC to continue leading growth with healthy comps across stores and digital.

    3. Average Unit Retail (AUR) Growth
      Q: What's the outlook for AUR growth this year?
      A: We are confident in continuing AUR growth through brand, channel, and geographic mix. We expect AUR to grow at a mid-single-digit rate , aided by cotton cost benefits and productivity improvements, reducing the need for like-for-like price increases.

    4. China and Asia Growth
      Q: How is China performing, and what's the outlook?
      A: China led our growth in Asia, with double-digit increases even on top of strong prior-year comparisons. Despite consumer sentiment challenges, we expect China to continue leading company growth, with Asia overall projected to grow at a high single-digit rate.

    5. SG&A Leverage
      Q: How will SG&A trend relative to revenue growth?
      A: Our fiscal '25 guidance implies about 30 basis points of SG&A leverage on approximately 3% constant currency top-line growth. After higher marketing expenses in Q1 due to the fashion show, SG&A growth will be below revenue growth for the rest of the year.

    6. Gross Margin Expansion
      Q: What are the drivers of gross margin expansion?
      A: We expect gross margin to expand by 50 to 100 basis points in fiscal '25 , primarily due to lower cotton costs. AUR growth, favorable channel and geographic mix, and reduced discounts will also contribute, offsetting some pressures from higher labor costs and inflation in non-cotton materials.

    7. DTC vs. Wholesale Growth
      Q: How do you see DTC channel growth versus wholesale?
      A: We expect DTC to lead growth with mid-single-digit increases across brick-and-mortar and digital channels. North America wholesale is expected to decline but improve from a 10% drop to down low to mid-single digits, aligning with sell-out trends.

    8. Europe Performance
      Q: What's driving growth in Europe amid challenges?
      A: Despite macro headwinds, Europe outperformed expectations due to strong brand positioning and momentum across channels. DTC growth is strong, and wholesale is expected to grow at a low single-digit rate, despite some quarterly volatility due to shipment timing.

    9. Young Consumer Traction
      Q: How are you attracting younger consumers?
      A: Younger consumers are leading our new customer growth, with over 1 million new customers this quarter and 5.3 million for the fiscal year. Targeted marketing in gaming and celebrity endorsements are resonating, and Net Promoter Scores among younger consumers are increasing.

    10. Outlet vs. Full-Price Stores
      Q: How does growth compare between outlets and full-price stores?
      A: Full-price stores have led growth in the past two years, but investments in outlet stores have narrowed the gap. We expect this trend to continue, with better trends in outlets contributing without slowing full-price growth.

    Research analysts covering RALPH LAUREN.